The range of Ixodes ricinus and the risk of contracting Lyme borreliosis
will increase northwards when the vegetation period becomes longer.
Jaenson TG, Lindgren E
Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2011 03; 2 (1): 44-9
In Sweden, the geographical distribution of Lyme borreliosis corresponds
to that of its vector Ixodes ricinus. Both tick activity and the length
of the vegetation period are determined by daily mean temperatures ≥5°C.
We analysed the correspondence between the distribution of I. ricinus in
Sweden, the start date, end date, and length of the vegetation period,
and the distributions of tick habitat-associated plant species. The
geographical distribution of I. ricinus in Sweden corresponds to a
vegetation period averaging ∼170 days, an early start (before May 1st)
of spring, and to the distribution of black alder (Alnus glutinosa).
Based on scenario models for these parameters, changes in the range and
abundance of I. ricinus were projected for the periods 2011-2040,
2041-2070, and 2071-2100. We conclude that climate change during this
century will probably increase the geographic range of I. ricinus as
vegetation communities and mammals associated with high tick densitie s
will increase their geographic ranges due to a markedly prolonged
vegetation period. By the end of this century, the ranges of I. ricinus
and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato may, in suitable habitats, encompass
most of Sweden, Norway, and Finland as far as 70°N, except the
mountainous regions. This will lead to an increased Lyme borreliosis
risk in northern Scandinavia.
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